A once-bullish GOP now sees a smaller House majority in its future

Last year, McCarthy bullishly predicted a 60-seat gain, a landslide that would give them a comfortable majority in a chamber where Republicans only need a net gain of four seats to take back power. But now, Republican sources believe that a gain of 15-30 seats is more likely, and they are not ruling out the possibility of a gain in the single digits, a thin majority that would almost certainly give McCarthy headaches…

“We are losing ground because of it,” one GOP lawmaker told CNN. “Roe caught Republicans off guard and we haven’t used it to paint the left as extreme nor shown any sort of compassion on the issue.”

“Republicans want to say, ‘inflation,’ as if that solves all our problems. It doesn’t,” the member added.

And with a smaller majority, McCarthy will have to listen to the demands of the hardline House Freedom Caucus — both in trying to pass his agenda and win the speakership. And behind closed doors, the conservative faction has already engaged in tense exchanges with other elements of the conference, including over the role of the controversial Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, according to sources familiar with the matter.