What if Democrats actually won the midterms?

So the road to a potential legislative nirvana passes through two difficult obstacles: how historically rare it is for the president’s party to avoid House losses (particularly when the president isn’t very popular), and the fact that two current Democratic senators are dead set against filibuster reform, which is necessary to any major congressional action outside the budget process.

Is a 52-Democrat Senate possible after the midterms? Yes, though it would require that Democrats hold vulnerable seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada while flipping Republican seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (or possibly Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio). At the moment, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Democrats are favored in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, and have a good shot in Wisconsin. So it’s hardly crazy to think they might be able to tell Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to kiss the filibuster good-bye in the 118th Congress. Once again, that only matters, though, if Democrats hold the House.

If that small miracle did occur, you have to wonder if Nancy Pelosi would reconsider her expressed plans to step down as the top Democratic Leader in 2023. Any Democratic majority would be very small, and her skill in managing a very small majority in the current Congress might not be transferable.