Style: Trump’s personal style cannot be imitated, and when his presence is gone, the party will likely see fewer candidates aping his transgressiveness. Even now, some of the most transgressive candidates, such as Eric Greitens, have difficulty getting through the primaries. But Trump’s combativeness, his confrontational approach to the press, and his bluntness and swagger are all likely to become long-standing features of the party as it represents culturally conservative Americans who feel estranged from the nation’s elite institutions.
Norms: Trump’s contempt for the polite and established norms of American political discourse has sometimes been long overdue, but more often, it has enabled the most dangerous aspects of his politics. The worst of that tendency was on display during the “stop the steal” assault on the outcome of the 2020 election. Sore losers and rule-breakers have always existed in politics; what was unusual was having one as the president. If the party is to remain a viable contender for even periodic majority coalitions, it will need to move past that — a task that will require a better leader. But the furies Trump unleashed may never entirely leave American politics.
Demographics: As much as leaders matter, all of the preceding is the tip of the iceberg; the party’s voters are the part below the waterline. We will likely see a continuation for the next decade of a number of the trends of the past few years, in which working-class voters (increasingly including Hispanic Americans) stream into the party while college-educated whites (especially suburban women) stream out. As the universes of regular and periodic Republican voters shift, we should not be surprised to see the party shift with them, Trump or no Trump.
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