Six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Moscow’s military has lost much of what momentum it had but has chosen not to take the politically risky decision to declare a national mobilization.
Instead, Russian authorities have plastered ads on billboards, websites, public transportation and official city portals urging Russians to sign up. Mobile recruitment centers have sprung up and authorities are seeking manpower from mercenary groups, prisons, veterans groups and volunteer brigades, among other sources, according to military analysts and activists who have been monitoring Russia’s enlistment drive…
“They don’t really have a good manpower solution for what they’re trying to do at the moment,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp. think tank who specializes in Russian military strategy. “I don’t see them having a capable force for a major offensive. What they could do right now is muddle through and make small incremental gains, but it’s not going to be a powerful push.”…
Russia’s forces in Ukraine could be undermanned by around 15% to 20%, said Ms. Massicot, based on Russian documents recovered following the defeat of one Russian unit—the 136th motorized rifle brigade—inside Ukraine that reflected such a shortfall.
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