Republicans are on the backfoot because they’re talking about abortion as if Roe were still the law, when it was easy to favor a total ban because it didn’t matter. Now the policy stakes are real, and Republicans will have to make clear what specific abortion limits they favor and why. The chance of abortion law changing in New York state is nil, but the GOP is still losing on the issue.
If Republicans shrink from engaging on abortion, then Democrats will define the debate. Republicans can also go on offense by pointing out that many Democrats are extreme in supporting no limits at all on abortion.
Voter turnout will be higher in November than in August, and the natural rhythm of a midterm election may assert itself, which tends to favor the party out of power. But after Dobbs, and with Mr. Trump back at the center of public debate, Democrats have a chance to overcome President Biden’s low popularity. GOP candidates have been warned.
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