It’s a shift that has left Democrats, headlined by gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist and Senate nominee Val Demings, trying to prove that their party can overcome the state’s recent history and still win in Florida.
“A 5-point spread for Republicans is huge in Florida, but I know they’re aiming for that,” said David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who has turned into a frequent critic of the GOP. “DeSantis is targeting a 6-point spread if he can get it. And I think the metrics line up favorably in Florida for a 6-point win.”
Jolly and other veteran pols caution that DeSantis and Rubio are far from sure things to win, particularly after the Supreme Court earlier this year revoked the constitutional right to an abortion, incensing the Democrats’ base and troubling many moderate voters. And they add that Florida, even if it’s becoming more Republican, is still more purple than red, thanks to a heterodox electorate that holds a diverse array of political views…
The state’s voter registration numbers, meanwhile, have shifted in the GOP’s favor: A Miami Herald analysis of the data shows that since 2018, all but two counties, Seminole and Alachua, have seen their share of registered Democratic voters decline. The GOP now holds an overall registration edge in the state of less than one percentage point.
“Obviously, you always want for us to have the higher registration numbers,” said Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former Democratic congresswoman from Miami, who lost her reelection in 2020. “But it doesn’t surprise me.”
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