We might be having a different conversation if Democrats had won a dozen seats in 2020, as they were expecting to, instead of losing a dozen seats. Then they’d have a buffer to work with. But they didn’t. Now, Republicans only need a handful of pickups to take back control of the House. And for all their problems, the face of the Democratic Party is still a president whose job approval ratings, while improving, are in the low 40s. Maybe they rise further and can near 50 percent! Or maybe, after a streak of a few good weeks, they settle or even decline. All we can do it keep watching gas prices.

We also might be having a different conversation if the tail end of the redistricting cycle hadn’t been so calamitous for Democrats. There was a moment when Democrats looked like they might wipe away a few Republican seats with their New York gerrymander alone. Florida legislators were pursuing a less-than-aggressive new map, Ohio courts were rejecting the state’s Republican gerrymanders, and Democrats looked like they could gain a second majority-minority district in Alabama (and potentially Louisiana and South Carolina) through the courts. Had those breaks gone their way, Democrats could’ve end up netting seats in this redistricting cycle.

But those breaks did not go their way. New York courts struck down Democrats’ gerrymander, creating all sorts of havoc. Ron DeSantis bullied Florida’s legislature into passing an aggressive map that seems like it could violate state and federal law, but Republicans get to use it in 2022 anyway. Ohio Republicans, similarly, pushed through a gerrymander they’ll be able to use for at least this cycle. SCOTUS rejected the Voting Rights Act challenge for additional majority minority districts in Alabama, and are preparing to take another swat at the VRA when they get around to it. The final Cook Political Report redistricting scorecard gave Republicans an overall gain of 3 seats in this round of redistricting.