It seems fair to suggest that in terms of legislative enactments, Schumer can reasonably be compared to Sen. Robert Byrd, the majority leader in 1978. Each used their position to enact a modest number of bills that expanded the size and reach of the federal government. So, will today’s legislative acts boost their chances in the looming midterm elections as the nation struggles with record-high inflation and energy prices, and with a President even less popular than Carter was?
History suggests the answer is no.
The passage of the far more consequential Obamacare bill in 2010 did not forestall Democrats losing 63 House seats and six Senate seats that year. And it is perhaps a telling statement about today’s politics that recent legislation has had virtually no impact on Americans’ everyday concerns: gas and food prices, real estate or rent costs, increase in crime, illegal crossings at the Mexican border and the educational impact of remote schooling from Covid-19 lockdowns. Today, the public remains sour on the Biden economy, and, by proxy, his party, despite all the spending hype.
But every election has unique factors of its own. No former President – since Theodore Roosevelt toyed with running for the 1920 Republican presidential nomination – has loomed so large over a midterm election as Donald Trump has. Democrats will also attempt to drive up turnout – which tends to sag in midterms – by leveraging key issues of the moment. They will emphasize culture war concerns (abortion rights and gun control) to their advantage with certain groups of voters.
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