As of August 2022, the full replenishment of the Russian Army’s manpower is clearly unlikely in the context of the ongoing war. Moreover, there is a visible tendency for further reductions. Even if the Kremlin can gain a respite in this war by resorting to threats and pressure on the international community (there is obviously no willingness to end the war today), this would just slow down the reduction rates.

At the same time, exotic options like mass ‘procurement’ of mercenaries in poor countries are unlikely to be seriously considered: they will be even less workable than regional ‘battalions’. As for the increased efforts to force Russian citizens to undertake military service (either by changing the order of conscription or by mobilisation), this option is fraught with serious domestic political risks, and an attempt to implement it will lead to consequences that are difficult to predict today.

Moscow will most likely have to rely on whatever it has available. Presumably, some of the forces currently engaged in guarding various military installations will soon be sent to war. It is also likely that some army companies, battalions, regiments and brigades of auxiliary forces (such as the communication, engineering, radiation, chemical and biological defence troops) will be reclassified as combat units and formations. While this will not solve the problem entirely, it would hypothetically buy time, especially if Moscow manages to reduce the intensity of the war.