Analyst Nathan Gonzales of the non-partisan Inside Elections newsletter said he still gives a slight edge to Republicans in the Senate contest. But he said there are recent signs Democratic voters are more energized after the Supreme Court in June overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide.
In recent House special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota, Republican victors eked out surprisingly narrow wins in districts that supported Trump by double digits, he said. And Kansas voters’ rejection this month of a constitutional amendment allowing state lawmakers to further restrict abortion access showed the issue’s potency.
“We’re still waiting to see if the reversal of Roe v. Wade is enough to help Democrats buck the typical midterm trend,” Gonzales said. Although the president’s party typically suffers significant losses in midterm elections, “there is some evidence in recent weeks that Democrats are over-performing.”
He is projecting a GOP net gain of 12-30 seats in the House. Given the shifts in the political climate, Gonzales said, the prospects for GOP House seat pickups could be toward the lower end, “the difference between Republicans having a great year or just having a good year.”
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