The Aug. 23 race between Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro, the executive of Dutchess County, is the first competitive House contest since the U.S. Supreme Court in June eliminated the nationwide right to abortion. It could offer a crucial test of whether Democrats can weaponize the issue in the Nov. 8 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

New York’s 19th Congressional District – left vacant when Democrat Antonio Delgado became the state’s lieutenant governor – is one of the few bellwether districts in the country. Democrat Barack Obama won it in 2012, Republican Donald Trump carried it in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden took it back in 2020.

Across the nation, Democratic candidates have seized on the Supreme Court ruling to argue that a Republican-controlled Congress would further endanger abortion rights and other freedoms.

There are some early signs the strategy is working, though Republicans remain favored to erase Democrats’ slim House majority amid historic inflation and Biden’s anemic approval ratings.