Fearing to escalate the conflict, the Biden administration has reluctantly focused on limited economic sanctions, export controls, and military aid. Perhaps surprised by the strong initial response, led by the United Kingdom and the EU, Putin might have been concerned with Russia’s economy in March, but by April it was clear that Biden would not follow up with truly crushing measures. And then Xi stepped in with a further lifeline. While it is true that China is not (openly) transferring drones or the other matériel Putin wants, that is hardly all the Chinese president has to offer. Xi has historically avoided military entanglements and relied instead on China’s growing economic clout to persuade or coerce other nations into compliance with China’s goals.

So while Europe began scrambling for alternatives to Russian energy imports, and the U.S. and U.K. declared an outright ban on them, China started a massive buying spree — at discounted prices — of Russian gas and oil. This diversified its supply during the current global energy crisis, as Russia quickly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the lead exporter of energy to China in May, a position it has now held for three months and counting.

In other words, Xi is bankrolling Putin’s invasion in exchange for cheap energy, an arrangement that suits them both handsomely. The only reason Xi would stop would be if he saw crushing consequences threatening Russia and feared sharing Putin’s fate. Here’s how to do it…