Hot milk: What rising prices tell us about inflation

So what does the soaring cost of a pint of milk tell us about the nature of inflation? And how much of the recent spurt has its origins in the supply-side shortages that emerged during the pandemic?

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That we’re seeing it happen in such a competitive market highlights how embedded price rises have become.

The cost of two of the biggest inputs for dairy farmers — feed and fertiliser — are up 83 per cent and 179 per cent respectively over the past year, according to the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. “With farm input costs rising so significantly, dairy processors have had to pay more to ensure farmers don’t reduce milk production too much,” says Patty Clayton, the industry body’s lead dairy analyst.

The war in Ukraine has exacerbated supply-side inflation. The media spotlight on Russia’s invasion has also meant the rise in costs has not only been painful, but visible — a crucial factor that has helped processors pass them on to retailers.

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