Biden’s approval rating on Day 577 of his presidency is lower than any other president since World War II, with the exceptions of Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman. Even Trump, whose ratings were low his entire presidency, had a higher approval at this point in his term than Biden does now.

History says a president with a job approval rating of 41% will not see midterm gains. He just won’t. But suppose Biden’s approval rating goes up. What would happen then? The answer is — it’s not gonna happen. Note this from the elections analyst Nathan Gonzales: “Looking back more than 70 years, there has not been a single president who substantially improved his job approval rating from late January/February of a midterm election year to late October/early November. In the last 18 midterm elections going back to Harry Truman in 1950, the average president’s job approval rating dropped eight points between this time of year and election day.”

In the RealClearPolitics average, Biden’s job approval was 41.2% on Feb. 1. It is 40.8% now. That’s what Gonzales was talking about. Biden is right where he was at the beginning of February. That’s not likely to change substantially by Election Day.