The race is tied among voters who say they are “extremely” motivated to vote in November (49% each) and Barnes is up by 2 points among those who feel certain they will vote (49-47%).

Overall, Barnes is helped by strong backing among moderates (+37), suburban women (+30), voters ages 65 and over (+23), and voters with a college degree (+16).

He also enjoys greater party loyalty, as 96% of Democrats back him vs. 91% of Republicans for Johnson. The small subgroup of independents favor Barnes by two-to-one.

Johnson’s best groups include White evangelical Christians (+31 points), men without a college degree (+17), men (+10), rural voters (+8), and voters under age 45 (+6).

Johnson won re-election in 2016 by 3.4 percentage points.