The differences between the 1990s and the present day in terms of the likelihood of political violence and civil breakdown in the United States are stark.

For one, there’s the newfound legitimacy of domestic political violence. In the 1990s, the militia movement was merely percolating, committed to resisting government but not interested in taking the offensive or prepared to do so. Mainstream American liberals and conservatives both firmly considered domestic political violence unacceptable. Only conspicuous law-enforcement debacles could inspire even an extremist like McVeigh to lethal terrorist action against fellow Americans. Today, though, Blue and Red are arguably irreconcilable, and Trump has hauled the far right to the surface and enlisted it in his personal service. Some of his supporters are so convinced that his presidency was stolen from him that they apprehend the subdued, circumspect, non-violent execution of a search warrant on his residence as a casus belli, and authoritative and admired figures encourage them to do so…

Another important difference is the growth of social media as engines of political violence. Militia organizations were essentially atomized in the 1990s, without the benefit of mass communication or cooperation. Now, they are thoroughly networked through Facebook and other digital platforms, over which they feed one another’s fervor as well as organize events and coordinate paramilitary operations, as demonstrated by the digitally driven coalescence of the Jan. 6 insurgents. Ironically, the militias have also learned from jihadists’ increasingly effective use of the internet for recruitment and operational coordination, and are themselves becoming transnationally networked.

Finally, owing to persistent far-right Republican opposition to effective gun control in spite of rising gun violence, military-grade weapons — notoriously, AR-15 assault rifles — have become far more widely available over the last 30 years, and militia members have accumulated them. More permissive gun ownership and carry legislation has made it easier for them to mobilize in force.