The last two times Democrats suffered catastrophic midterm losses, an early warning of the coming earthquake came out of the Pacific Northwest.

This year, the indication from Washington state suggests something very different: a more middle-of-the-road outcome in the general election, instead of the red wave Republicans have been hoping to build.

Poor Democratic results in Washington’s August all-party primaries reflected the broader malaise that hit the party statewide and nationally in 2010 and 2014, and Republicans’ troubles in November 2018 were obvious in the August primary returns that year. Now, the 2022 primary vote out of Washington is the latest new data point — along with a number of promising Senate polls and a slight lead for Democrats in the average generic House ballot polling — suggesting Democrats’ performance in November may not be as catastrophic as previous midterm elections when their party held the White House.

This year, the aggregate Democratic vote across the state’s House primaries was more than 5 percentage points worse than Democrats’ performance in the 2018 “blue wave” year. But it was also more than 5 percentage points better than Democrats performed in either 2010 or 2014, two Republican wave years.