But Trump cannot play the victim card all the way to the White House. There is a double-edged nature to his complaints about the 2020 election, or about legal troubles that he is in now. Supporters may instantly sympathize with Trump and intuitively understand why he is undergoing these trials. But Trump needs to show himself triumphing over them to be a credible leader.

Trump will also need to re-create the magic that propelled him in 2016. His supporters anticipated and greatly enjoyed delivering his election as a shock to all of polite Washington, a shock that not only humiliated Democrats, but also humbled many Republicans, too. Trump will have to find a way to make a sequel even more exciting than last time. Part of his 2016 appeal was his willingness to tell truths that Washington would not accept: that America was getting little for the war on terror. Trump needs to re-create the iconoclastic thrill of supporting him, the empowering sense that he is an instrument for crushing the establishment in both parties.

Trump’s first term also will have inevitably disappointed some of the people who projected their hopes onto him. He had promised to “change” once in office and be less outrageous. He didn’t, and many suburban women voters punished him in 2018 and 2020. He promised to fulfill the long-nursed fantasy among some Republicans and many populists to put a businessman at the top of Washington. The economy was good until the pandemic started, but Trump frequently seemed like a boss who had lost control of his underlings. A real boss wouldn’t have let a subordinate department like the FBI soak up so much of his energy.