Republicans are stuck at the 50-yard line, held back by fears of extremism and of Mr. Trump’s potential return. To make any progress, they will have to double down on the economy and push energy independence over climate change to reach these struggling Americans. They will need to win the message war over the Inflation Reduction Act as a wasteful taxing-and-spending spree in times that demand pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility.

The midterms will depend on whether voters’ fear of inflation or of the unknown wins out. Democrats need to stoke fears about what Republicans would do with congressional majorities; Republicans need to alleviate them. Democrats need to prove they deserve to stay in power by fighting inflation now, while Republicans can frame the tax-and-spend bill as the last straw.

Right now neither party is showing the discipline to execute a swing-voter strategy and both are playing mostly to their bases. The mystery of why Republicans have not closed the deal is explained by these voters who dislike the president but can’t stand the Republicans either. This group of younger, mostly lower-middle-income moderates will determine if the 2022 midterms are a blowout or a squeaker. They remain up for grabs.