So, how are Democrats able to defy political gravity with independent voters? And, can they sustain it?

First, not all those who disapprove of Biden are taking out their frustration on his party. One pollster told me that his most recent polling showed “Dems winning generic Congress ballot among ‘somewhat disapprove’ of Biden by 17 points. That’s what is keeping Dems competitive in Congressional ballot generically.”

Another is that independent voters are simply fed up with both parties and, as such, aren’t focusing their frustration at just the party in charge. One GOP pollster told us that a significant percentage of independent voters in his most recent poll have negative views of both Democratic and Republicans in Congress. Or, as one GOP strategist remarked to us the other day, these voters “hate us both.” This is one reason why you are seeing some of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents running ads that point to their work on rooting out Washington corruption, like refusing corporate PAC funds and banning members of Congress and their families from trading stocks or becoming lobbyists. The more that Democrats can show their separation from “the swamp,” the better chance they have to keep those independent voters on their side.

Overall, however, Republicans can take heart in the fact that the top issues for independent voters remain inflation and the economy — issues for which they give Biden very low marks, and say they trust the GOP more. And, while things are improving on the economic front, they still aren’t great.