Post-Roe special elections show potentially encouraging signs for Democrats

The result in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, where Republican Brad Finstad defeated Democrat Jeff Ettinger, caught the attention of party strategists and nonpartisan analysts looking for clues about the mood of the electorate. Finstad led Ettinger by four points with 99 percent of the vote tallied Wednesday, according to the Associated Press. Donald Trump won the district by about 10 points in 2020.

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In Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, which held a special election in June, the change was even more pronounced. While Trump won the district by about 15 percentage points in 2020, the Republican congressional candidate, Mike Flood, beat his Democratic opponent, Patty Pansing Brooks, by around six points.

Both elections took place in the aftermath of the Supreme Court striking down Roe, which established a constitutional right to end a pregnancy. Democrats have been working to translate anger with the decision into support for their candidates. They said they were encouraged when conservative-leaning Kansas voted overwhelmingly in a high-turnout election this month to protect abortion rights.

Those three events, along with some other factors, could suggest the political climate for Democrats is not as apocalyptic as it seemed a few months ago, when Biden’s low approval numbers (which remain in negative territory) and high gas prices coupled with historic trends pointed to a Republican wave election, some analysts said.

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