That said, hearings by the congressional January 6 committee investigating the Capitol riot have damaged Trump, as have a barrage of news stories about his potential prosecution, according to Impact Social — at least among voters beyond the CPAC-aligned base.

An analysis conducted from June 29 through July 13, during the heat of the hearings, showed net sentiment for Trump dropping eleven points from -30 to -41. The good news for Trump in the subsequent analysis is that he remained at -41. By contrast, DeSantis was at -6 in the analysis through July 13 and increased to -4 for the following period, July 13-27. This indicates Trump might have reached a floor but, perhaps, DeSantis hasn’t yet hit a ceiling.

“Trump will need to prove to the GOP primary electorate that he has what it takes to win over swing voters regardless of who the Democrats put forward,” the Impact Social summary says, noting that the posts in question focus negatively on his behavior and the allegations against him.