The war in Ukraine is emancipating central Europe

European politics often involves coalition-building among countries seeking to push or block decisions in Brussels; yet because of its intransigence, Poland—a large country that could have clout—was often sidelined. In a 2020 European Council on Foreign Relations report visualizing every EU country’s potential for coalition-building, Poland emerged as the second most disappointing partner for other member states, punching far below its weight.

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But now, with Ukraine at the top of the EU’s priority list, Poland is a front-line state. With its long-time warnings of Russian danger finally being taken seriously by the rest of Europe, it has confidently taken center stage in many respects. It took in millions of Ukrainian refugees. Having a long border with Ukraine, it has a key role in the provision of humanitarian aid and military equipment to the war-torn country. Poland is also crucial for NATO’s defense plans for Europe. For all these reasons, European ministers and heads of government are visiting the country again. For visits to Kyiv, they travel via Poland. Poland was also the first to raise the issue of Ukraine’s EU membership in Brussels during a meeting just days after the invasion.

Suddenly, Poland looks credible again, which gives it leverage. And Warsaw is trying to use that to solve its rule of law problem with the EU. A new law reforming its disciplinary regime for judges contains some concessions, aimed at finally unlocking some of the 36 billion euros (or $36.7 billion) in frozen EU funds. Those concessions are not yet enough, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently warned. But the fact that Poland is trying to get down from the high tree is noteworthy in itself.

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