To obtain the warrant, the DOJ had to present a detailed affidavit to a judge walking through the evidence they have that a crime was committed and providing some reason to believe evidence of that crime is at Mar-a-Lago right now. I emphasize “right now” because the government needs to show that there was probable cause to believe that evidence of the crime was present at Mar-a-Lago at the time of the search. It is extremely unlikely that a judge would approve a warrant based on stale evidence that had been received many months ago. The Justice Department also would act in the most conservative, cautious manner given the enormous stakes for the Department’s reputation and the nation as a whole.

Law enforcement doesn’t need to specify the exact documents they believe to be in the safe; they would describe them in general terms, but they would be very specific about the location and the reason they believe the documents are where they say. I suspect that the FBI has been in contact with someone familiar with Mar-a-Lago or close to Trump — possibly an employee or an associate — who was able to say with confidence that evidence was contained at Mar-a-Lago and specifically in Trump’s safe. That’s what I would be concerned about if I were Trump’s defense attorney.