You can already see how that will play out given the dynamics in the Senate, where Democrats have without question had several great weeks, pushing through legislation on guns, microchips, and now a massive climate, health care, and tax package. One critical vote in September will be on gay marriage, favored by many GOP senators but with the potential to undermine the motivation of their culturally conservative base. Should this legislation end up as anything beyond a simple codification of gay marriage, should it extend in any way into “you will bake the cake” compliance, cultural conservatives will feel betrayed. This has the makings of a significant enthusiasm gap now and in the future.

Inflation concerns and economic uncertainty are still top of mind for most voters, to such a degree that Kevin McCarthy and House Republicans — who have enjoyed an excellent recruitment cycle — can remain very confident in their chances headed into November. Republicans have a great story to tell on energy and they’re telling it. And while it may have been a good run for Democrats, it hasn’t been a great couple weeks for Joe Biden. How can it be when he remains so depressing and unpopular, AWOL with Covid, and under fire from his own party?

Of course, the ground still favors Republicans. Yet shrinking, fragile Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot this time, and there is no clear and present legislative threat like Obamacare in 2010. Yes, people are furious over the direction of the country, and GOP candidates seem poised to reap the votes of millions of Hispanics fed up with Democrats’ cultural extremism. But Dobbs has still given Democrats fresh motivation and money.