The recent successes “have probably converted what would have been a Category 5 storm to a Category 3 storm for Democrats,” said David Axelrod, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama. “And that’s a big difference.”

But it will only matter if Democrats pound on GOP vulnerabilities, he added. “They’ve made some really significant strides in the last few weeks, but they also have to contrast that with the portrait that’s growing of the Republicans as a party in the thrall of extremists,” Axelrod said. Republicans have faced backlash for actions such as opposing caps on insulin costs and initially blocking a veterans’ health bill.

The turnaround on the budget bill, Biden’s most startling victory, was the result of a decision to reverse himself sharply and let senators negotiate among themselves, rather than playing a leading role himself — not an easy move for a self-declared master of the Senate. After earlier negotiations with Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-Va.) blew up in December, Biden directed his staff not to disclose the details of any interactions with members of Congress to take himself out of the public picture.

“One of the lessons learned — a big lesson learned — was that letting the negotiations with senators dominate the public conversation was a mistake, because it made it so that disagreements about minutiae became what the public consumed, instead of how pieces of legislation were going to impact people’s lives,” said Jen Psaki, Biden’s former White House press secretary. “Sometimes the best things happen in the dark, away from the public.”