2. An accumulation of layered immunity might render COVID a more tepid illness.

The virus may not ever mutate at a slower pace, but those mutations could become a lot less important. This could happen as layers of immunity—from a combination of prior vaccinations and prior infection—give the virus less and less power to make us really sick. Over time, SARS-CoV-2’s effect on us may come to resemble something closer to the common cold, caused by another, more familiar, coronavirus. COVID-19 wouldn’t disappear, but it would be characterized by mild symptoms that for many would barely register.

This is the path many mistakenly believe is inevitable, one we have already started on. Yet we are not there. We still hold our breath each time a new variant of concern is spotted. In the U.S. alone, some estimates suggest that more than 90 percent of the population has been infected or vaccinated—and still hundreds are dying each day. Some people think this a tolerable state, but for that, you have to become numb to thousands upon thousands of COVID deaths a year, not to mention lots of missed school and work, a taxed medical system, and the long-term chronic illnesses that come from many cases. For us to be at a better place, everyone—including older, frailer, and sicker people—will need to be able to live like the pandemic is over.