Patrick Miller, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kansas, pointed to a crucial distinction: “We’re more Republican than we are conservative.”

He noted that a majority of Kansans do support abortion rights in at least some circumstances. Many of those voters strongly back Republican candidates, but that doesn’t make them a reliable conservative bloc in a referendum on a single issue.

“There are a lot of counties on our map that voted no yesterday that never vote for a Democrat for anything, from federal office down to local office,” Dr. Miller said.

“You see that sometimes in Medicaid expansion in other states,” he said, “that expression of that voter who typically is going to be a straight-ticket Republican, but if they’re asked to express their opinion on just this one issue, they’ll vote more left-leaning.”