Now it’s possible, of course, that Manchin will still be able to market himself to West Virginians as someone willing to bring home the bacon while keeping either party from arrogant lawmaking or extremism. He did, after all, single-handedly kill the Build Back Better package before slowly and grudgingly allowing successor legislation to emerge. And he has never budged in his even more consequential refusal to countenance any weakening of the Senate filibuster power that has doomed nearly every other Democratic legislative priority that could not be included in a filibuster-proof budget-reconciliation bill. His 2024 ads could include a lot of Republican words of praise for his “courage” in bucking the imperial will of the allegedly godless and socialistic Democrat Party. And he would begin the 2024 cycle in pretty good shape: Morning Consult showed him enjoying a 57 percent job-approval rating back home in the first quarter of 2022, including a 69 percent rating among Republicans. While that is presumably about to change, it will take some time for the GOP to restigmatize him.

But it’s also probably time to consider the possibility that Manchin will retire at the age of 76 in 2024, or perhaps try to return to the governorship he once held and appears to have enjoyed. If he does simply end his political career, though, Democrats may wonder why he didn’t just give them whatever they wanted in 2021 and 2022. Perhaps after all he did care about inflation or excessive government spending or the fate of the fossil-fuel industry and the West Virginians employed or otherwise invested in it. Progressives have a bad habit of assuming that cowardice or corruption is the only reason any Democrat would oppose their policy goals. But if anything is clear from the experience of the last two years, it’s that Manchin does not care what progressives think of him.