By contrast, Republicans will probably be political winners as a result of this inflationary run. This is despite the fact that much of the spending helping to feed this inflation was passed by a Republican-controlled Senate in addition to a Democratic House and signed into law by former President Donald Trump. But Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed without a single Republican vote and was signed into law after the economy was already awash in over $3 trillion of stimulus spending from the prior administration and Congress.

But inflation was not evident to ordinary consumers under Trump. The Consumer Price Index rose by an average of 1.9% annually each year the former president was in office. The last time inflation was a major political issue, it had been high under two Republican presidents. Richard Nixon attempted to fight it through wage and price controls, while Gerald Ford launched the much-ridiculed “Whip Inflation Now” campaign. But it was Democratic President Jimmy Carter who bore the brunt of the blame, as stagflation (an unappetizing mix of slow economic growth and high inflation) contributed mightily to his 1980 landslide defeat. Republicans also won their first Senate majority since the 1950s that year.

As the Federal Reserve resorts to interest rate hikes to combat inflation, a similar economic challenge could emerge. Biden has begun offering the same assurances on the unlikelihood of a recession that he once did on persistent inflation. Since inflation is predominantly a monetary phenomenon, however, some consider the Fed a loser as well.