4. Economic Pain

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. Beijing could leverage that advantage by sanctioning exporters, slapping a boycott on some Taiwanese goods or restricting two-way trade. On Monday, China banned food imports from more than 100 Taiwanese suppliers, according to local outlet United Daily News. However, China must tread carefully as it needs Taiwan for semiconductors.

Beijing has already hit various Taiwanese leaders with sanctions, including bans on traveling to the mainland. More officials could face similar actions, but they’d have little impact as Taiwanese politicians are unlikely to travel to the mainland or do business there.

China could also disrupt shipping in the Taiwan Strait, a key global trade route. Chinese military officials in recent months have repeatedly told US counterparts that the strait isn’t international waters. Still, any moves that hinder commercial shipping would only hurt China’s economy.