A new axis?

Those two countries obviously have something in common. Like Russia, both China and Iran view the U.S. as an adversary. If the world is breaking into two competing blocs — democracy versus autocracy, as President Biden has put it — Russia, China, and Iran make up the core of the anti-U.S. bloc. And they recently seem to be increasing their cooperation.

Their closer ties raise an alarming prospect: What if all three countries decide to confront the U.S. simultaneously sometime soon in an effort to overwhelm the American ability to respond?

Russia has already invaded Ukraine and has the ability to expand its attack to new parts of the country. Iran has so far refused to re-enter the nuclear pact that Donald Trump canceled and could at some point take steps to build a nuclear weapon. China has become more aggressive toward Taiwan, and U.S. officials have grown concerned about the possibility of an invasion in coming years.

“I’m not predicting it,” David told me, referring to the prospect of simultaneous acts of aggression from China, Iran and Russia. “But there is reason to think it’s plausible, and our system can barely manage one big conflict at a time.”