Ongoing high inflation represents a greater danger than a mild recession, both in terms of general economic welfare and in terms of political danger to the Biden administration. People tend to forgive mild recessions, but they get really, really up in arms about high inflation. And they are up in arms about inflation right now.

The mild recession that we are probably in right now is being caused by the Federal Reserve’s attempts to tame high inflation. The Fed has hiked interest rates from near 0 to 2.5% and has made it clear that more big hikes will follow if inflation doesn’t fall. This and other Fed actions have curbed aggregate demand, by discouraging investment. That’s why housing investment has cratered, and why business investment is inching down. And the reduction in investment is why we’re in recession.

Now, consumption is still rising slowly. And there’s no sign of a rise in unemployment at all yet. And with disinflationary pressures mounting from the supply side, there’s a decent chance that the Fed will only end up having to induce a mild recession in order to tame inflation.

So Biden supporters shouldn’t be terrified of the r-word. If general knowledge of a “recession” helps stop businesses from continuing to raise their prices, that will be a healthy thing — both for the economy and for Democrats’ chances of keeping Donald Trump from returning to office in two and a half years.