Second, Pelosi’s trip is intended to enhance deterrence but could actually undermine it. To deter China, the United States needs to demonstrate commitment and strengthen its military capabilities as well as those of Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit has no impact on American or Taiwanese military capabilities, yet it could end up undermining perceptions of US resolve.

How might Pelosi’s trip lead Beijing to question US resolve? Just two months ago, Joe Biden effectively committed to coming to Taiwan’s defense. Critics will debate the wisdom of his statement, but this crisis now places him in opposition to the top member of Congress of his own party. This is hardly the recipe for building consensus or signaling enhanced US commitment.

So the domestic political dynamics of this visit could undermine deterrence.

Finally, Pelosi’s trip may divide the United States from key allies and partners. Crises can be useful if they inspire greater international cooperation and drive resources accordingly. But US allies and partners have thus far been silent on Pelosi’s visit. This despite the recent tendency of allies in both Asia and Europe to publicly endorse peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.