But notice the heights of those red and blue columns. Among Democrats, Fetterman gets 89 percent of the vote and Warnock 91 percent. Among Republicans, Walker gets 84 percent of the vote and Oz only 73 percent.

In other words, only three-quarters of Pennsylvania Republicans say they plan to vote for their party’s Senate candidate! This is not generally a recipe for success in the moment’s deeply partisan national politics. Particularly when independents (who are less likely to have an opinion at this point) prefer Fetterman by 14 points…

Both states also have gubernatorial elections this year. There, the pattern repeats — to a degree.

In Georgia, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has a slight lead over challenger Stacey Abrams. In Pennsylvania, state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) trails Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) by 10.

Notice the difference in how Republicans view the two candidates, though. Mastriano gets the support of 82 percent of them. Kemp gets 92 percent.