Robert Blizzard, a partner at the GOP polling firm POS, did some number crunching of his own this week of the 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms and concluded that “on average, running 5-6 points ahead of Biden is fair game, but more than that is very unlikely.”

So, let’s now apply this framing to the latest Georgia Senate poll taken for the AJC. Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock leads Republican Herschel Walker 46 percent to 43 percent in that poll. Warnock’s 46 percent is a full 10 points higher than Biden’s anemic 36 percent job approval rating in the state. But, compare Warnock’s vote share to the generic Democratic vote in the state (41 percent). Once again, we get to 5 points. This is driven by fact Warnock has consolidated Democrats. Among Democrats in the poll, 94 percent are voting for Warnock. Biden’s job approval rating among Democrats in the state is an anemic 73 percent.

But, coalescing the Democratic base in a swing state won’t be enough to win. Democratic candidates will also need a certain percentage of independent voters to support them. And, those independent voters not only deeply disapprove of Biden, but they are also more focused on the economy and inflation.