For their part, Chinese diplomats have responded to Pelosi’s reported plans with their typical histrionics. China’s ministry of defense said that it would “resolutely defend national sovereignty.” There’s speculation that China could declare a no-fly-zone over Taiwan. And if Pelosi were to travel on a U.S. military aircraft, that could add to Beijing’s fury.

But China’s options are limited. The Xi regime presumably understands it would be risky for China’s interests to invade Taiwan. The PLA might send more jets than usual through Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone, but ahead of the National Party Congress, Xi is not thought to be seeking a new, destabilizing military crisis. Further, if he were to invade, it would be based on his own calculations and not because a single diplomatic visit was “provocative.” He and the party more likely prefer to secure further concessions out of Biden, without a frightening cross-strait confrontation in the mix. During an upcoming call between the two leaders, slated for Thursday, Xi might make certain demands — even that Biden lean harder on the speaker to cancel her plans.

It’s unclear whether Biden is capable of resisting such pressure, however, as he and his team seem more likely to take Chinese fire and fury into account than they do the concerns of Taiwanese officials that a capitulation by Pelosi could make their position even more precarious.