The nominal argument for Democrats to prefer Trump is that politicians such as DeSantis are just as destructive, but more competent, and therefore more dangerous. More competent, I grant you (even though I don’t much like that flavor of politics). But plausible non-Trump contenders are still basically normal politicians who are unlikely to ape Trump’s most dangerous, antidemocratic stunts — if only because they’re not reckless or stupid enough to risk indictment.

So I suspect a bit of motivated reasoning here. Democrats think Trump, and Trumpy types, are easier to beat — they’re currently spending millions to boost the Trumpiest candidates in Republican primaries, willing to risk empowering Trump to lengthen the overall odds that Democrats win. But even if you’re morally okay with risking the country that way, it’s a bad bet; both prediction markets and polls currently give Trump excellent odds of winning the next election.

Never Trump conservatives who think DeSantis might be worse are making a related bet: that should Trump lose, Republicans might finally wake up to the mistake they made in supporting him. As a dyed-in-the-wool Never Trumper myself, I certainly understand the temptations of that hope. But I also think it’s folly to long for some movie moment where Trump’s supporters finally repudiate him.