That is one reason why the Ukrainians want to get a move on. After months of being on the defensive they are anxious to get the Russians responding to their initiatives, especially while the general staff is still working out how to adapt to the damage being done to their supply lines and command chains. Richard Moore, the head of UK’s MI6, has expressed the view that Russia could be ‘about to run out of steam’ in Ukraine, as they find it increasingly ‘difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks. They will have to pause some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.’ He concluded that the ‘Ukrainians may have a window in which they can take advantage of what may turn out to be only a temporary Russian weakness.’

It is because of this potentially short window that the counter-offensive now appears to have begun. The Kherson regional military governor has claimed that Ukrainian troops have liberated 44 towns and villages along the border regions, about 15 percent of the territory, and are now about 50 km from Kherson city at their closest point. Another local official has spoken of how Kherson will be free by the end of September, although President Zelensky has been more careful, promising only step-by-step progress. Yet another military official has compared the Ukrainian campaign to ‘waves’. ‘Right now we’re making small waves and creating conditions to make bigger ones.’

How might this work? The only sure way to dislodge Russian troops from established positions is to mount a large-scale counteroffensive, following up artillery fire with assaults combining armour and infantry. This may become necessary although for the moment the Ukrainians may have insufficient brigades that are fully equipped and prepared to mount such an attack with confidence. But while it might be difficult to push the Russians out using overwhelming force that is not necessarily the only Ukrainian strategy. Alternatively it might be possible to render the Russian positions so uncomfortable that forces have to be withdrawn if they are to be preserved. Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent has outlined a likely Ukrainian plan…