But in 2006 — when the gap was a not-insignificant 7 points as of July 25 — little changed. Bush’s net approval rating fell from -19 points to -20 points, and the generic-ballot polling moved in tandem from D+12 to D+14. By Election Day, the gap between presidential approval and the generic ballot was 6 points.

In 2010, the gap also didn’t change much — but to the extent it did, it actually got wider. Granted, this was the year that presidential-approval polls and generic-ballot polls were just 1 point apart on July 25. And by Election Day, they were still in close agreement, albeit 2 points apart. Obama’s net approval rating went from -2 points to -4 points, and the Republican lead on the generic ballot increased by a bit more than that (from R+3 to R+7).

Finally, in 2014 — perhaps the best analog to our current situation — Democrats’ standing in generic-ballot polls did deteriorate from a 2-point lead on July 25 to a 2-point deficit on Election Day. This was a bit closer to Obama’s -11-point net approval rating, which barely changed over the course of those three and a half months. But there was still a 9-point gap between the two numbers, so it’s hard to say they truly converged.

In summary, it’s not unusual for presidential-approval polls and generic-ballot polls to still be several points apart on Election Day. So that leaves us with one final question: Which of those two indicators should we be paying more attention to?