Whatever the Fed’s decision, it’ll be made “without a clear line of sight at their target. That uncertainty heightens the risk that they’ll either do too much — triggering a severe recession — or too little, prolonging red-hot inflation and making it harder to conquer.”

— On Thursday, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will drop, and economists expect they’ll show a decline of 1% to 2%. It would be the second straight quarter of decline — which is often seen as signaling a recession.

The Biden administration is prebutting the expected bad GDP news.

“I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy,” Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “And even if that [Q2 GDP] number is negative, we are not in a recession now. And I would, you know, warn that we should [not be] characterizing that as a recession. … Most of the data that [the National Bureau of Economic Research] look[s] at right now continues to be strong.”