Don't run, Joe: Second terms suck

Why does any president bother with reelection? Beyond the innate human unwillingness to give up power is the lame duck problem. If a first-term president announces that there will be no second term for members of the president’s party in Congress, the political incentive for unity erodes. Members of Congress can more easily whack the president without concern that they are kneecapping their next nominee. A president needs his party to see that their political fates are intertwined, so his legislative agenda can more easily pass Congress.

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But your agenda is pretty much kaput. For over a year, you have been wooing Joe Manchin, pleading with him to support a party line multifaceted reconciliation bill before the 2022 midterms. Appeals to Manchin’s personal and party loyalties have flopped, and only a small fraction of what you have proposed could get his thumbs-up. If you’re lucky enough to get his blessing, prospects for any more far-reaching progressive legislation are bleak.

The question you, Mr. President, should ask yourself: Why should you bother? There’s nothing to gain from staving off lame duck status and a second term that’s sure to be miserable. You’ve been running for office since 1969. Is this how you want to spend your remaining years?

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