Trump’s decision to fixate on the 2020 election may hamper a 2024 presidential run. Claiming that 2020 was stolen allows Trump to avoid admitting defeat, but it also sends an implicit message of ineptitude (allowing your own election to be “stolen” from you while president is not exactly the definition of winning). It also sucks up the oxygen for him to talk about other issues. It’s easy for establishment pundits to forget this, but Trump’s primary campaign in 2016 had a policy message front and center: build the wall, leave global trade deals, repeal the Affordable Care Act, and so forth. Republicans could have a host of promising economic and cultural issues to run on in 2024; making the 2024 election about 2020 would squander those political opportunities.

The Republican Party has also changed in a way that has made some of Trump’s 2016 positions less distinctive. As the Washington Post’s Jason Willick has observed, the GOP has incorporated many of Trump’s key themes into the party mainstream. In the Senate, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, and Marco Rubio (among others) have trumpeted a pro-worker “realignment” agenda for the Republican Party. Among the nation’s governors, Ron DeSantis has become perhaps the principal lightning rod for populist political controversies. Veterans of Trump’s own administration — including Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, and Nikki Haley — might themselves attempt to lay claim to Trump’s populist mantle.