Yet there might be one silver lining for Democrats on the distant horizon. Should former President Trump decide, against the advice of nearly every Republican strategist alive, to announce his candidacy before the midterm elections in November, he might energize Democratic voters enough to minimize their losses at the margins. I am not sure it would save one or both majorities, but it certainly has the potential to have a greater impact than abortion, guns, and Jan. 6 combined.

As unpopular as Biden is currently, he still bests Trump in most head-to-head matchups. In fact, Trump is arguably the one Republican that Biden might have a decent chance of beating if he ultimately decides to run for reelection.

While it is certainly true that only a fraction of Republicans have turned on Trump and would definitely vote against him should he run again, another 30 percent appear to be shopping around and open to considering alternatives to Trump, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.

If a single Republican were to take Trump on—let’s just say Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example—there is a decent chance that there are enough Republicans who say that they may agree with many or most of Trump’s policies and positions but would consider him damaged merchandise, a flawed vehicle for a message they like, and he might lose the primary. The challenge is that under the Republican delegate-selection system of winner-takes-all rather than proportional representation, delegates allocated in rough proportion with vote share, the more rivals Trump has, the more ways the anti-Trump or non-Trump vote is split. If that’s the case, then it is more likely for Trump to prevail. A fractured and competitive primary would not be a pleasant experience for Trump, but he would still come out on top.