It would also be bad for U.S. policy if Pelosi now failed to visit the island in the face of Chinese bullying. Our allies have increasingly asked us to make clear commitments to defend Taiwan if China attacks. Nations such as Japan would surely view Pelosi canceling her visit as a sign that the United States is unwilling to test China’s resolve. That sends a message of weakness, which Biden will not want to try to counteract. Anything more provocative than a visit to Taiwan from Pelosi would risk antagonizing our allies, or China, at an even greater level. Better she go now than place Biden under pressure he doesn’t want in the future.

U.S. ambiguity with respect to Taiwan served U.S. interests so long as China was weak. Americans could trade with Taiwan and China, enriching all parties, without the risk of an invasion. Now that China is militarily and economically strong, that straddling act no longer suffices. China will not back down: It will push us to choose between relations with it or defending Taiwan. It’s better for the United States to decide which it values more now and build the capacity to accomplish that goal, rather than continue to put our head in the sand and hope the problem goes away.