Another problem that The Daily 202 has repeatedly flagged, but it really matters in this discussion: Covid, inflation, gas prices are global phenomena that become local news stories, experienced at schools and on commutes, far from the green rooms of inside-the-Beltway media.

Biden also has a polling worry Trump never really endured: Losing support from his base. Trump famously boasted he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters. Going by Gallup, Trump had 88 percent approval from GOP voters on his 11th day in office but by Day 527 he was at … 88 percent.

Biden had 98 percent approval from Democrats on his 13th day in office, but had fallen to 85 percent on Day 516.