One cannot overstate just what an odd and unwarranted reversal of the balance of power this was. The United States is a superpower—and, for now at least, the superpower. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, to use an impolitic term, client states. In other words, they depend on American power for their security and survival. Their armies would be grounded in short order if the United States were to suspend all military provisions, including spare parts and maintenance for equipment as well as training and logistical support. At the risk of stating the blindingly obvious, they need us more than we need them. Yet if an extraterrestrial descended from outer space and witnessed last week’s events without the benefit of prior knowledge, they might have assumed the opposite—that the United States was the junior partner paying tribute to its superpower patrons.
The president’s very public deference to a brutal but weak regime is not just a problem for American strategy; it is a problem for American identity. On the world stage, is this what we’re intent on becoming?
Of course, former President Donald Trump was enamored of the Saudis and acted accordingly. Today, the same coddling of autocrats is happening under a Democratic administration, despite Biden’s insistence that his predecessor’s approach would be a thing of the past. In a sense, Biden has left us with the worst of both worlds, an untenable middle position that rarely works in the Middle East. The United States still has a pro-autocrat policy, only the autocrats in question don’t like us and don’t even pretend to respect us. Upon arriving in Saudi Arabia, Biden received a cold welcome from his hosts. Barack Obama found himself similarly snubbed during a 2016 visit. Obama was responsible for a historic increase in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but his goodwill was neither appreciated nor reciprocated. This is not an accident. In fact, what analysts have called “reverse leverage” is perhaps the defining feature of America’s relationship with Arab autocrats. The United States rarely puts conditions on military support to the Gulf. Gulf states, in turn, take the assistance for granted, viewing it as an entitlement.
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