Dean Cheng is the senior research fellow at Heritage’s Asian Studies Center. Cheng said the PLAN is moving away from ski ramps and toward more traditional catapult launches. “This goes to the reality that a catapult launch allows aircraft to carry much larger payloads (more bombs, more fuel or both), giving their air wing much more capability,” Cheng explained.

Sadler considered what it would mean if the Type 004 is nuclear-powered. “If the fourth carrier is nuclear it signals two things to me. One, a readiness to complete the final developmental step in matching U.S. supercarriers. Two, either confidence in the nuclear propulsion system for on-time delivery, or no urgency in developing it,” he said. “My thinking is the fourth carrier will be conventional, as the PLAN likely will focus on capacity or numbers at sea if 2027 is a culminating point in tensions over Taiwan.”

Sadler said the air wing of the fourth carrier could include fifth-generation naval fighters. But Cheng noted the mainstay warplane would be an older design.. “This will likely be the J-15, based on the Su-33 platform, itself derived from the Su-27 (and previously known as the Su-27K),” Cheng said. “The air wing will likely also include anti-submarine helicopters (likely Kamov-derived designs), and an airborne early-warning aircraft, either on a helicopter, or the KJ-600 airborne early-warning aircraft.”