Initially, the Youngkin win got huge attention because of the perception that he found a way to marry right-wing cultural politics to a state issue on which Democrats were usually very strong: public education. A huge McAuliffe gaffe in which the former governor seemed to dismiss the idea of parental involvement in education policy, it was thought, had led to big GOP gains in the upscale suburbs where Virginia Democrats had been doing so very well, up to and including 2020. In reality, a statewide jump in Republican voter turnout may have been as important as Biden voters switching to Youngkin. But in any event, the red-vested private-equity mogul quickly became a symbol of the viability of a post-Trump GOP that was still a bit MAGA but without the madness…

Let’s get real. Republicans are very likely going to renominate Donald Trump, who told New York’s Olivia Nuzzi that he’s decided to run in 2024. Even if Trump changes his mind, there are a lot of candidates ahead of Youngkin in line. Yes, crazy things can happen in presidential politics, and Youngkin showed some real skill in 2021. But the bottom line is that he’s a random politician mostly lifted to victory by forces beyond his control, who will fade from view once there are a ton of other “new Republican faces” after the midterms. Yes, as one of the Nebraskans hearing Youngkin speak said, he’s “so tall!” And he looks even taller through the lens of nearby D.C. pundits, who as a matter of convenience try to turn every metro Washington politician into a national figure. But odds are very high that any trip he takes to the White House will be through the visitors’ entrance.