The theory of the case for Youngkin starts with a paradox. He is attractive to many Republicans because they think his 2021 victory in Virginia shows he has found a way to make Donald Trump irrelevant. For now, however, the hovering omnipresence of Trump is virtually the only reason Youngkin—with scant achievements reflecting his scant tenure—is relevant.

With his victory over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in 2021, Youngkin managed to keep the coalition of Trump supporters intact, and add to it a significant share of suburban voters who loathe Trump and gave the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by ten points. That result, combined with Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s Virginia victories in the previous three elections and a string of Democratic wins in statewide offices, had many people thinking that the once-purple Old Dominion had become a reliably blue state. Youngkin, leading a statewide sweep, sent this analysis to the wastebin. He did all this — almost alone among contemporary politicians — by maintaining the illusion that Trump was no big deal. He didn’t denounce Trump. He embraced Trump in ways that seemed perfunctory. He kept Trump out of state and, in relative terms, out of public consciousness, at least when voters were making a gubernatorial choice.

When it comes to his treatment of fellow Republicans, Trump can be thought of as a very temperamental dog. Don’t try to be nice and pet him — he’ll sink his fangs in unexpectedly. Don’t show fear — that just makes him lunge. Don’t be aggressive and confront him — you’ll be mauled. Instead, Youngkin said calmly, “Good boy,” then walked swiftly past while Trump was busy sniffing and digging in the yard. Was this a triumph of shrewd political technique, or random good luck?